2018年5月14日星期一

Video: Nvidia / Apple Q1 業績解說

Like Facebook Page 就不會錯過 Live video, 快人一步:


https://www.facebook.com/tungshing80/

直播已放上 YouTube 重看:


2018年5月5日星期六

2018年4月26日星期四

舜宇光學 - 人棄我取

當市場風聲鶴唳,大家都聚焦中美貿易戰下的犧牲品俄鋁、中興、華為等等,這邊廂台積電也同時發佈預測付運半導體數據疲弱,令投資者們擔心蘋果 iPhone 需求下降,以至股市上的俄鋁、中興、 台積電、蘋果、舜宇光學、瑞聲科技、中軟國際、丘鈦、Nvidia 等等股票全線大跌。

較搶眼球的瑞聲科技今天連跌了 13 天;而舜宇光學則由 $170 多元回落到今天大約 $120 元左右, 跌幅達 40% 以上。

當大家都在恐慌性拋售時,我就在市場上運用之前 1-2 月清去美股港股時的資金去密密掃貨。當然,跟市場對著幹從來都不好受,也有我們俗稱「捱價」的局面。但是,從基本面去分析某幾隻股票,實在沒有什麼太大問題。

今天,我選了舜宇光學 ,來講講為什麼我人棄我取。

首先,我們先了解下舜宇光學的幾大業務。舜宇光學現時的業務分為:

  • 光學零件 (光學鏡頭)
  • 光電產品 (鏡頭模組)
  • 光學儀器
而有一些分析員則會將光學鏡頭及鏡頭模組合併一併分析, 再跟據兩種應用層面上來細分:

  • 手機鏡頭應用
  • 汽車鏡頭應用
從舜宇已公佈了的 2017 業績來看,可以知道收入分佈為:
  • 光學零件 (19%)
  • 光電產品 (80%)
  • 光學儀器 (1%)
光學儀器已變成了雞肋,可有可無了。所以我們的分析應集中光學零件及光電產品。

而舜宇已公佈了的 2017 業績來看,可以知道利潤分佈為:
  • 光學零件 (49%)
  • 光電產品 (51%)
在深入了解舜宇光學之前,我們更加應該先了解其市場定位及分額。為什麼呢? 因為我多次聽過學生們及讀者們說如果 iPhone 銷售不行,舜宇光學也會死掉了。事實上,在今天,舜宇光學仍不是 iPhone 的供應商,所以他們的 correlation 其實不是很大。

以下是舜宇光學的光學零件業務主要客人 (只列出大眾熟識一點的):
  • 華為
  • Oppo
  • 小米
  • Vivo
  • Panasonic
  • Sony
  • Samsung
  • Sharp
另外,作為基本的分析也要知道市場份額及其對手是:
  • 大立光電 (38%) 主要供應給 apple, 也有給 Android 系手機
  • 舜宇 (17%)
  • 關東晨美  (~8%)
  • 玉晶光 (~7%)
相信大家看到上述也太約明白到舜宇光學的定位及產品是什麼了。舜宇過去多年的成長我也不長篇描述了,我們應該集中其未來數年的發展潛力,從而找出一些投資的機遇。

從上面的業佈/產品分佈來說,舜宇未來要挑戰到大立光電而拿下大生意有如 mission impossible. 但我們也不應小看  Android 系手機的龐大市場,尤其是一些價格中低,硬體強勁的中國製手機。

從整個行業分析來看,智能手機的總數量已達到飽和,新智能手機的總出貨量更有微跌的勢頭。可幸的是,用家的手機攝影、自拍、影片以及解鎖的功能越來越講究了,所以在這個小版塊上, 舜宇光學仍有強勁的增長。

隨著領先的 iPhone 及 Samsung Galaxy 系列在近年出產的手機都加入了高解像度鏡頭、雙鏡系統 (即長焦鏡及廣角鏡各一,在利用光電模組及軟件成像,達成了景深的效果)等,一眾中國手機供應商也是參考 (抄考) 這種配置。

iPhone 推出雙鏡系統及人像模式後大受好評,雖然以我作為業餘攝影師來看,那種人像模式十分假,但做到了 8-9成功力,現在真的小了很多人拿著很重的單鏡反光機及大光圈鏡頭去旅行攝影。還有看到我公司那幾位八婆當日買到 iPhone 7 在玩人像模式後大讚,相信此產品而廣受消費者接受。當潛意識上覺得雙鏡系統是手機的基本配備後,對我另一個身份 - 業餘投資者來說更是一個大機遇。

簡單來說, 一個電話的手機鏡頭配置由基本 2 顆,增加到 3 - 5 顆後 (華為剛出了後置 3 鏡頭手機,有機會再談),無論是光學零件及光電產品的預期付運量及毛利均可以大增 (如果產能供應得到的話)。這還未計算以鏡頭作人臉解鎖的應用。

舜宇第二個的增長點是汽車鏡頭。隨著輔助駕駛、智能駕駛及無人駕駛的應用下,舜宇光學把握到一個絕好時機。從 Tesla 的設計及生產研究經驗上,我得出了一個很 solid 的結論,汽車日後常設配備 4-6 個高質素鏡頭及光電模組並不出奇,而舜宇光學在汽車鏡頭的付運數據上一直維持強勁的增長。這是這公司另一大增長的亮點。

高增長倍升股的形成是: 有市場,有產能,有生意,收入倍升,盈利倍升,預測 PE 維持,估值增加,股價增加。

跟據我對手機配置,自動駕駛及鏡頭行業的研究,我深信舜宇過去數年以及未來數年都能維持以上的模式來為投資者帶給可觀的回報。

跟據一些分析數據,舜宇在手機鏡頭的收入將會由 2017 的 20 億元增加至 2020 年的 50 多億。而手機鏡頭模組這塊肥豬肉更可以由 150 億元增加至 300億元。汽車鏡頭業務則可由 10 億元增加至 60 億元。市場潛力十分龐大,能夠支持每年的高 PE, 高增長,最後還不是反映在股價中。倍升股是這樣形成的。

當然,以上資料在專業投資界是「阿媽是女人」的級別,所以這隻股票 PE 及股價都是長年高企的。

我想帶出是,每一次急跌,如果你相信不太影響其增長的預期,可謂千載難逢的好機會。所以,人棄我取是必須的,雖然過程上幾難受又無癮。

時間將會証明以上「阿媽是女人」是對, 或者全錯。

我希望把他持有到 2020 年。他跟 823 / Nvidia 是我月前大逃亡沒有走的股票之一。當然三月時也沒有令我失望的。 

Good Luck!



本網頁純屬網誌,一切言論純粹是個人意見。本人亦無法保證網誌內容的真確性和完整性。無論在任何情況下,不應被視為投資建議,也不應被成要約、招攬、邀請、誘使、建議或推薦。 讀者一切的投資決定以及該投資決定引致的收益或損失,概與本人無關。

本人或持有本網誌所提及的資產的長倉及短倉及衍生工具, 並會在亳無預料下買入及賣出。本人對持有的資產內容偏頗,讀者應運用自己的獨立思考能力理解內容。


筆者不是證監會持牌人士,不會提供亦不是提供任何投資意見。

2018年4月7日星期六

我們喜歡阿仙奴或是雲格?

說來話長,我喜歡阿仙奴的年份應該是 1997 年還在高貝利球場的年代。當時的阿仙奴陣容有門將斯文 David Seaman,四大老人防線(迪臣 Lee Dixon、阿當斯 Tong Adams、基昂 Martin Keown、溫特本 Nigel Winterburn),中場有拉 Patrick Vieria 、比堤 Emmanuel Petit、奧華馬斯 Mac Overmars、柏奴亞 Ray Paulor 等等,前鋒當然是最佳的拍檔亨利 Thierry Henry 與及柏金 Dennis Bergkamp。到今時今日,我仍相信亨利多年在高貝利有這樣的成就,很大因素是在於他的拍檔是金。那年代好看之處是阿仙奴每年跟 費格遜 Alex Ferguson 的曼聯鬥到你死我活,拉次次都同堅尼 Roy Keane 開拖的熱血日子。

再之後  2003 年更是阿仙奴的頂峰。整季在細小的高貝利球場屈機,   間接成就了一季 38 場不敗而拿下英超冠軍。

之後亨利離開了,我對阿仙奴那份熱情有一點減卻。我再次留意起阿仙奴是當年有一位年輕人 16歲 的時候在英超打正選,他就是費比嘉斯 Cesc Frebagas。看着費比嘉斯年紀輕輕的神乎其技,以及阿仙奴流暢的進攻,這枝球隊是十分之有娛樂性。我相信大家喜歡足球的朋友,都喜歡看踢小組入滲的主攻球隊,多過鐵桶陣的死守球隊吧。

喜歡阿仙奴的球迷,多數也喜歡她的領隊,雲格 Arsene Wenger。但自從阿仙奴決定興建新的酋長球場,由於需要大量的建築費用,他們打後很多年沒有足夠的預算,在每年的轉會市場買入高質的球員。

而雲格以及他的團隊有一項長處,就是非常能夠發掘有潛質的年輕球員,並且把他們帶到一對去踢高水平的比賽。如是者,阿仙奴的管理層發現球隊其實可以以很低的成本在年輕球員當中找到很有質素的球員,然後把他們到英超踢踢幾年用到盡後,再可以高價買給其他的球會。 在這種在商言商的角度,管理層分喜歡這個商業模式。於是對雲加的買球員預算就更加收緊了。同時球會亦在努力償還酋長球場的貸款。

阿仙奴原是爭標的球隊,在這環境下順理成章就把爭標的球隊變成敷衍球迷的商業球隊。管理層把每年阿仙奴的目標定在可以打入英超前四位,以獲得歐聯下一年歐聯參賽的資格 (有巨額的電視轉播費用)。這時的阿仙奴每每在聯賽的八月到十一月的表現都比較好,始終球隊還是有些球員的質素是高的,再加上有潛質的年輕球員偶爾會打出幾場好的比賽,阿仙奴的排名有時候也是高的。

但那些年份,曼聯、車路士、曼城等球會也投入大量金錢及引入大量教職員及優質球員,所以那些年爭標時最後都會輸給這些球隊。阿仙奴的是年輕球員經驗不足、以及高質素的球員數量不足夠,所以球隊每每到一月二月的時候表現就會甚為差勁,以及傷兵滿營。我很記得好幾年,阿仙奴在聯賽半季排在第一第二名的位置,到了一月二月時阿仙奴跌到第四第五名,然後苦苦掙扎渡過球季,最後四大皆空。作為球迷,這是心痛及失望的年代。但我仍然欣賞阿仙奴的秀麗的進攻模式以及小組入滲。我還很欣賞雲格每年能夠帶出一些有潛質的年輕球員給我們驚喜 (無論是自家青訓或年輕的收購),近年看到求一些球員例如拿斯利 Samir Nasri、藍斯 Aaron Ramsey、韋舒亞 Jack Wilshere、高基連 Francis Coquelin、比爾連 Hector Bellerin、傑比斯 Kieran Gibbs、施捷斯尼 Wojciech Szcesny 等等 (係囉, 冇前鋒)  都甚為欣慰。

如是者,阿仙奴在償還興建球場的貸款情況下,以及自身的不足,足足有八年(2005-2012年) 沒有拿下任何錦標。如果你上網看的話,經常有其他球會的球迷、甚至自己的球迷,串阿仙奴多年無冠的慘況。直至到 2011年阿仙奴打入了聯賽杯決賽,雖然聯賽杯只是本土的一個甚為不起眼的錦標杯仔,而阿仙奴一直以來年青球員為班底參加聯賽杯,但總算是直接殺入了決賽,球會為了的面子結束 7 年冇錦標的情況,在決賽中阿仙奴決定派出聯賽的正選陣容對伯明翰。

我還記得那場球賽阿仙奴先輸一球然後雲佩斯 Robin van Persie 很辛苦才追回一比一。接近補時的時候,伯明翰有部份球員都沒有體力了,加時的時候一定能夠拿下他們。可惜,高斯爾尼 Laurent Koscielny 犯下錯誤,給伯明翰的前鋒馬田斯 Obefemi Martins 在 89 分鐘射成 2-1 。我記得馬田斯在入球之後興奮得把高斯爾尼的頭拍了一下,暗示你這次繼續沒有錦標。高斯爾尼絕望得沒有任何反應。如是者阿仙奴只能在聯賽杯拿了第二位,我還記得作為隊長的雲佩斯行上看台拿銀牌的失望樣子。

在沒有冠軍的日子,艾沙雲 Andrey Arshavin,雲佩斯,拿斯尼,藍斯,普多斯基 Lukas Poldoski,路斯基 Tomas Rosicky,卡蘇拿 Santi Cazorla,桑治 Alex Song,禾確特 Theo Walcott,施捷斯尼等等都偶爾夠為我們帶來快樂的回憶。我還記得艾沙雲一場入利物浦四球、雲佩斯無數的窩利抽射,拿斯尼玩弄對方守衛,藍斯的高難度入球,普多斯基左腳勁射,路斯基的浪漫足球等等,都是我們欣賞阿仙奴的地方。

終於阿仙奴在   2013 年買入了奧斯爾 Mezut Ozil。 對我來說,這是一個轉變。因為很明顯奧斯爾的質素是比其他球員高一班的。他的到來也有助之後吸引其他高質素球員加盟。奧斯爾的位置不是前鋒,所以打起來也不起眼,而且他的比賽態度一向都是受盡批評的,所以奧斯爾的來到看似沒有令阿仙奴有分驚人改進的表現。但是,無可否認,奧斯爾的來到,是令阿仙奴在 2014 / 2015 兩年連續拿下兩季足總杯冠軍的重要因素。

隨後車路士放棄了門將施冶 Petr Cech,施冶及山齊士 Alex Sanchez 加盟阿仙奴,我真的有一刻想過阿仙奴是否真的有能力認認真真挑戰英超的冠軍。但你進步時,其他球隊也會進步,例如曼城在經歷下柏迪堅尼 Manuel Pellegrini 及哥迪奧拿 Pep Guadiola 的調教後,曼城現在是一支十分難以應付的球隊、熱刺在普捷天奴 Mauricio Pochettino 之下起用大量年青球員及優質球員,成績也很好、利物浦請來高普 Jurgen Klopp 把利物浦變成另一枝多蒙特的加強版、曼聯把摩連奴 Jose Mourinho 請來也令曼聯難以應付、還有干地 Antonio Conte下的車路士及那季打到識飛的李斯特城。根本在你進步的時候,其他球隊也在進步,所以阿仙奴一直不能夠染指英超前列位置。而且,到了歐洲戰場更加見光了,十六強無論是遇到巴塞隆拿,拜仁以及AC 米蘭,都是贏不到的。

最近兩季阿仙奴在英超成績更差,我相信也是雲格最後的賽季了。我一直想小東昇大個一點後跟他到英國一起看雲爺爺的阿仙奴,可能等不到了。有時其實在想,究竟我們是喜歡雲格或是阿仙奴呢? 我也不知道。無論如何,我們都是喜歡了二十年的阿仙奴,風雨不改。阿仙奴陪我由一個中學生變了一個成年人。我有時不敢去想沒有雲格的阿仙奴會是如何的。


雲格

1997-1998 的阿仙奴

柏金及亨利

堅尼及

2003 / 2004 隊照

酋長球場 / 高貝利球場

費比嘉斯 (16歲)

2011 年伯明翰射入阿仙奴 2-1 

雲佩斯典型窩利抽射

奧斯爾

2015 年阿仙奴拿足總杯冠軍

近年常見的現像


2018年3月29日星期四

五十萬實戰倉 - 三月結 (NAV: 163.5) (+63.5%)

Only English version is available.


In March, I spent most of the time of holidays again and handling miscellaneous things about my family. This is the ideal lifestyle that I am looking for if someday I achieve so-called financial freedom. The data as shown in my portfolio are the prices cut-off by the market end today.

Stock in Portfolio

The indicative price is based on the market-closed price on 29th March for HK Market and 28th March for US Market.

[Click to enlarge]
*P/L for Futures are realized and accumulated. Amount is equivalent to the maintaining margin of the Futures.

% of allocation 
- Links 17%
- A-Living 3%
- Nvidia 17%
- Futures 14%
- Cash 50%

There were limited trades within March:

Purchased IPO of Time-intercon (1729,HK) with allocation of 8,000 stocks only at $0.5. Sold at $0.61.
Day-trades the recent stock which undergone IPO, B & S International who managing bubble tea business; Bought at $3.07 and sold at $3.29; Bought on another day at $6.00 and sold at $6.28. 
Misc. Mini HSI futures trade. Shorting is dominant within March.

The above three non-core trade contribute $6,640 to the portfolio.
There were no major core trades within March.
·
The previous trades of HSBC / BocHK / Hangseng bank / Apple / JetBlue Airline / iBond / American Airline / ADI Tech / Cathay Pacific / HKEX / Pingan Insurance / AAC Tech / Tongda Group / Tesla (change of broker) / CN Literature / China Software International / Tencent / Facebook / Tesla / Google etc realised profit or lost. I am not going to repeat here.

Announced / Received Dividend: $27,835 (5.6%Y / 2 years)
Expected amount of Dividend in 2018: $3,600 (0.72%Y only)

Taking into account of handling fee, commissions and tax ($9,200, 1.8%), the portfolio worth became $817,274 (included dividends). The change is about +63.5% from the start date of this fund. It drops another 2.3% when compared to Feb 2018 and 5.1% from Jan 2018.

In the fund, the cash level is about $402,000; Profit (Realized / Unrealized) is about $298,639; Percentage of investment is maintained at 50%.

At the same time, Hong Kong HS Index up about 37% from 21,950; DJIA Index up about 44.7% from 16,472.
The fund is outperform the above two indexes, with the consideration of fee and dividend. It is because the cash level is relatively higher now and therefore when the index drops, the effect on the portfolio worth is minimized.

Return and Management

The portfolio has been ran for 30th month(2.5 years). Beneficial from the bull market, the return is about 63.5%, which is already 4 times to the original target. The original target for two year is 15.6%, which consideration of earning per share grows 10% each year. Besides, it is successfully reduces the number the stocks to 3 nos. only (2 nos. of HK stock / 1 US stock / 1 mini-futures). The adjustment of the fund avoids the huge drop of index this month. It also in-line with the long-term goal for increasing cash level.

Hong Kong Stock

Links
The stock price of Links hit the historical peak of $75, higher than our valuation. In the whats-app group for students, I had already point out that it was logical to reduce the position of Links. By then, the US bond yield was going up, and coincidentally the US / HK markets dropped significantly. The stock price falls to the level of $65. Similar situation were found in Dec 2016. At that time the stock price was below $50.

The rationale of retreating was that traditional investors of REITS emphasize the importance of the dividend yield of the REITS. The difference between the yield and the US bond yield is their measuring indicator. When the US bond yield is expected to rise, the difference between the two will reduced. However, investing US bond is always having lower risk when compared to REITS. Therefore, reducing in difference is not beneficial for REITS.

Besides, some analysts also pointed out the assumed capitalization rate use in the valuation of Links are low. With the consideration of the interest rate going up as well as the general rental market in Hong Kong, the cap rate for valuation might be increased in future. The valuation of Links’ properties might reduce. Therefore, the price momentum for Links is weak recently.

However, my view on investing Links was not about the dividend. Personally I think the stock price will reflect its value someday sometime.

Within March, there were trading days that links occasionally has a re-bound over 2.0%. The driver was the expectation of interest rate increase will not be as vigorous as before, attracting a lot of purchasing power.

I will keep the Links REIT in my portfolio for long term investment. 

Lately, Links is trading at HKD$67.0.

A Living
No particular comment on A Living.

US Stock

Nvidia

The latest result of Nvidia is outperform. Earnings increased dramatically. The stock price has a strong momentum to break the records from time to time. I hold my position of Nvidia and purchased additional 40 stock near the end of Feb.

However, due to recent re-treat of Tech Stock and potential trade war between US and China, the stock price of Nvidia drops quite significantly. Therefore it appears some unrealised lost in the portfolio. I still keep my position of 80 stock of Nvidia in this portfolio.

Lately, NVDA is trading at USD$221.35.

Stocks not in this Portfolio now but I still want to comment on it:

Tencent

I bought Tencent before because I expected its ability for earning growth as well as it potential in the areas of financial technology. The previous announced result indicated that it was in the right direction. The last quarterly result shows it ability for generating huge earnings. Many analysts had reviewed its target price. To my best knowledge and information, there are already at least six analysts advised Tencent will have a target price over $500 in the future 12 months.

In the past three months, tencent retreated to approx.. $360. I believe some of the investors had already sold their stock during the retreat. Before the announcement of its result, Tencent's stock price even climbed up to historical price of $476.6.

After the release of the result, the result was slightly beat the consented expectation. However, at the same time the major stockholder of Tencent, Naspers from South Africa announced that some of their investors urged them to sell part of the stocks of Tencent, for realising the profit from it. In their statement, they announced that they will sell the shares with the worth of US$ 10.6 billion dollars. 

With the worries of slowing-down growth in gaming market, the Nasper's shocking news, the major retreat of US tech stock, the collapse of Facebook's stock price and the potential trade war between US and China, tencent stock price has retreated to near $400.

Paragraphs written in previous months:

The risk of holding tencent is high valuation. The current trading position of tencent is at Current PE of 50x-60x. When the market is bullish, such a high PE can be bearly maintained. However, when the market is bearish or volatile, tencent or alike stock is in a dangerous position for selling. Since its market cap is high, PE is high and high correlation to Hang Seng Index, shorting of tencent will be significant if there is the tendency of lowering the Index. When investor’s confidence of holding this stock is diminishing, regardless how well the business it is, the stock might be traded at more reasonable PE range of 20x-30x. The potential downside will be significant and noticeable. I will hold the stock of tencent with a very cautious mind of selling it anytime when the market is retreat.

With the significant retreat of both HK / US markets in Feb, I decided to sell tencent within $430-$440. Eventually, all of my tencent stock was sold. With the valuation becomes more reasonable and a foreseeable uptrend of the market, I will definitely buy the stock back.

Lately, Tencent is trading at HKD$409.6.

Google

Due to the risk of collapse of US market, I sold all Alphabet stock in Feb. I wish to purchase it again if the valuation is available and when the market is considered less volatile. (Reviewed from today, it was a wise move!)

Lately, GOOG is trading at USD$1004.56.

Facebook

Facebook getting into a embarrassing position with a critic and crisis with Cambridge Analytica. In short, it is a crisis to this social media company that not protecting the user's data well and leading to the interference of voting by external parties. This made the users, the investors and the analysts all suddenly against this company / stock.

As social media stock is very sensitive to user's perception, I believe the stock price of Facebook will be very weak in coming months. Investors may also not to provide Facebook a high PE for trading, even though there will be anticipated growth in number of users, revenue and profit.

Paragraphs written in previous months:

Miss J of the TS Research Team expressed her view on FB. She worried the trend of using facebook will be gone in coming years. I am very old-fashion and I have no idea whether the younger generation is using facebook or not.

This issue was widely discussed in the TS winter gathering with other students. In conclusion, facebook is a very effective platform for information sharing, however, it is no longer funny and entertaining. We believed the younger generation will spend time on Instagram for sharing. The only merit is that Instagram is part of the Facebook Group.

Obviously, the facebook business is not considered sustainable. It will not grow forever. As the long-term investor, close monitoring on quarterly result is essential. When there is trend of dropping Monthly Active User (MAU) number, I will consider to sell all of the Facebook’s stock.

FB had a hugh pressure on its price in Jan. Many users reflected to facebook that it is not funny anymore. The CEO / Founder, Mr Mark Zuckerberg, decided to re-position Facebook. From now on, the sponsored stories will be appeared in lower frequency in the News Feed. After Mark’s announcement, the price of FB dropped to $176. I sold most of my FB stock at $177. The action might be considered to be sudden without carefully thought. However, the single nature of business did worry me. I will sell it with considerable amount of profit at market’s bull. This investment offered me 70% profit on capital.

Although the result of Facebook beats the expectation, I decided to close all of my position of Facebook stock in Feb. (Reviewed from today, it was a wise move!)

Lately, FB is trading at USD$153.03.

Tesla

Last week is a terrible week of Tesla Inc. The recent bad news are:
  • Accident of self-driving car of other company;
  • Accident of a Model X results a huge fire and fatality;
  • The board approved huge options scheme for Elon Musk with conditions;
  • The delay of manufacturing of Model 3;
  • The worries of Tesla's cashflow;
  • The unclear political environment and policy risk;
  • The down-grading of tesla price.
Paragraphs written in previous months:

Tesla announced its 4th Quarter result with a loss per share of USD$4 approx. It productivity and delivery reached historical high with 26,150 cars delivered in one quarter.  It consisted of 11,865 units of Model X, 14,065 units of Model S and only 220 units of Model 3. The delivery / productivity of Model 3 did not meet any expectation of the market. Tesla clarified there is no major problem in manufactory, except a few bottlenecks in supply chains.

In my opinion, usually tesla stock price might drop after the announcement of the result due to the poor financial indicators. Therefore, I sold all stock of tesla at ~USD$340 and increase the cash level of the fund before the announcement of the 4th Quarter result. 

(Reviewed from today, it was a wise move!)

Lately, FB is trading at USD$257.78.

Market

Personally I didn’t have a too bullish view on the market. I had expressed my views on many platforms, articles, videos etc. I am not going to repeat. The HK market re-bound to 31,XXX and then retreated again to the level of 30,000 today. I only to able gain HK $10,000 with my operations in futures trading. Shorting is still in dominant position. 

Paragraphs written in previous months:
Sth wrong with my keyboard: HSI PE ratio is approx. 17 now, even the forward PE ratio is 15.3, it is NOT cheap anymore. If the index rise 10% more, says 3,200 pts to 35,000, the current PE will be over 18 and the forward PE ratio will be over 16. It is already in a dangerous zone. Increasing cash level and stop purchasing is very important. Please bear in mind. The yield of HSI drops to a level about 2.71%, which is already 1 standard deviation below the historical average. Although it is not common to have forecast of HSI yield, my data indicates that 2018 HSI yield will not have significant improvement. As such, if HSI rise to 35,000, the HSI yield becomes 2.5%, which is considered to be extremely low. I really don't have a very bullish view on the market. Take care, friends.

When the P/E of HS Index is even higher and the yield is even lower, a single bad news could drive the significant retreat of the market. I considered it as “Party Time Over”. I need to be cautious and monitor it closely. By the time, I might conduct a big short to everything.

Research Team Members

I will have a short lunch with a potential team member tomorrow. I will update you if she could join us. She has a excellent academic and working background which is a missing puzzle of our team.

Video Class

If you would like to learn more on Tung Sing's investment style, stock picking skill and risk management, please feel free to email me / text me for joining the video class with fee applied. More information with a lot of positive review from other student is available in the following link:


Disclaimers

This webpage and this article are web-based blog. All of the content is the personal view purely. I cannot guarantee the integrity or the accuracy of the content. Under all circumstances, the content shall not be regarded as investment’s advice, they are not invitation, funding rising, recommendations, advice etc. The reader shall be responsible solely of their investment decision. There is no direct or indirect connection of the content linked to the reader investor’s profit or loss.

I personally might have long or short positions and the derivatives of all of the assets mentioned in the article. Under unpredicted conditions without prior notification, I will open or close the positions. I consider I have bias on the asset that I may have interested to. The readers shall read the content with their own understanding.

I am not the licensed person of SEC HK. I will not offer any advice on investment.

Photo

I did not make any good picture for this article this month. Therefore, let share with you my latest set up for workstation / playroom. It is highly efficient for all function now. I like it so much.


2018年3月21日星期三

為什麼賣自住樓等於沽空樓市?

早前有一天在討論區看到有一位人兄出文說沽了自住樓 (即: 個人擁有唯一的物業, 而且居住中).

看討論區, 當然是看留言啦.

有一位心水清的朋友則說, 沽自住樓等於沽空樓市, 要受很大的風險.

我相信未必所有人都明白什麼是「沽空樓市」, 我試試從必需品及投資的角度解說一下.

首先, 「沽自住樓等於沽空樓市」要有以下的前提假設:

  • 個人擁有唯一的物業
  • 而且居住中
  • 假設有物業升值 (才有明顯沽售誘因)
  • 不符合申請租住公共房屋的資格
  • 不符合申請其他資助房屋的資格
  • 出售物業後須要付出租金租住同樣質素的樓宇
  • 居住同樣質素的樓宇是必需的
沽空原理

在我的博客也曾提及過什麼是沽空股票. 在這裡, 再說明一下:

沽空的原理是你原本沒有倉位 (position = 0), 沽空時向莊家借出倉位 (position = -1), 獲利條件是日後用更低價錢買入倉位 (position = +1), 然後平倉 (position = -1 +1 =0), 賺取差價.

為什麼沽自住樓等於沽空樓市? 解說如下:

因為居住同樣質素的樓宇是必需的、不符合申請租住公共房屋的資格等等, 所以擁有自住樓的朋友倉位要必須維持在 +1 (position = +1); 售出樓宇時倉位 -1 (position = 0); 沽自住樓而轉租目的是 日後用更低價錢買入倉位 (position = +1), 然後平倉 (position = 0 +1 = +1), 以便日後能以更低價買回相若的單位.

看到這裡, 引証了在以上的情景 scenario 下, 沽自住樓等於沽空樓市。你會不會用幾百萬再加 50% 槓桿去沽空一隻股票? 正常的情況下應該不會吧。所以如果有一層自住樓, 又在想以上的操作, 除非有接近 100% 的把握, 否則應三思而後行。

壞情況:
因為居住同樣質素的樓宇是生活必需的, 所以擁有自住樓的朋友倉位要必須維持在 +1 (position = +1); 售出樓宇時倉位 -1 (position = 0); 沽自住樓後樓價租金急升,最終想重新買回(position = +1), 然後平倉(position = 0 +1 = +1), 枉蝕了中間差價,還未計洗費。

歡迎share.





2018年3月9日星期五

有趣的數字,信不信緣份?

有趣的數字,信不信緣份?

我的資訊會有 20000 人看到;
A. 有 2500 人 (12.5%)like Facebook;
B. 有 250 人 (1.25%) 會問東昇班;
C. 有 140 人 (0.7%)會成為東昇學生;
D. 有 25人 (0.125%) 會在東昇班活躍;
E. 有 6 人 (0.03%) 成為東昇研究隊員。

你在那裡?

免責聲明

本網頁純屬網誌,一切言論純粹是個人意見。本人亦無法保證網誌內容的真確性和完整性。無論在任何情況下,不應被視為投資建議,也不應被成要約、招攬、邀請、誘使、建議或推薦。 讀者一切的投資決定以及該投資決定引致的收益或損失,概與本人無關。

筆者不是證監會持牌人士,不能提供任何投資意見。

Follow by Email

I Love Travel

除左投資,我其實好鍾意去旅行,去過的地方:
北京 天津 武漢 廣州 珠海 台北 高雄 墾丁 曼谷 蘇梅 清邁 新加玻 民丹島 首爾 春川 內藏山 井邑 東京 大板 京都 奈良 神戶白濱 富士河口湖 名古屋 犬山 白川鄉 長島 鈴鹿 千葉 佐倉 那霸 明護 倫敦 劍橋 溫莎 巴夫 溫特米爾 列斯 愛丁堡 巴黎 里昂 梵爾賽 茵特拉肯 少女峰 洛森 羅馬 比薩 佛羅倫斯 米蘭 威尼斯 梵蒂崗 烏德勒支 阿姆斯特丹 鹿特丹 尼斯 沙巴 神山

關於我

我的相片
東昇 是土生土長的香港 80 後,和很多香港人一樣,沒有家底,畢業後所有事都是靠自己的。19 歲開始投資股票,27歲獨力上車,現在向財務自由第一個milestone努力中。 希望在此分享投資心得及經驗。 我這個實在的上車故事,總可以給人們一些不離地又沒有嘩眾的分享吧? 歡迎留言/電郵,一定解答。 Contact: hkgconsumer@gmail.com